The 2016 Change to the ITC No One Talks About

This is by far the most overlooked change from the 2015 to 2016 ITC season. I would go as far as saying it is the First Blood of the ITC ranking system, where only one player can obtain it and it becomes the tiebreaker that wins games.

The importance of winning round one is losing round one will cost you about 6 points or 1-2 rankings per event.

Tournament Organizers know this part of the game. If you have 16 players you need at least three rounds to find a true winner

• After round 1 you have 8 winners
• Using Swiss Pairings, where winners play winners, you have 4 undefeated players after round 2
• After round 3 you will have 2 undefeated players, and mission points will determine the top player

ITC awards 3 point per win until your first loss. Based on the formula above

• Only two players will be undefeated, so they will get 9 extra points
• Only 2 additional players won two in a row and lost their last game, gaining 6 points
• Only 4 guys will get three extra points for winning Round 1

Let us look at a GT level event with five rounds

• 32 players to start
• 16 players win round one
• 8 players win round two
• 4 players win round three
• 2 players win round four
• 1 player stands alone with 5 wins

Now we add in the bonus for having 32 players, let us see just how many extra points each player got:

• Our top player at 5-0 would get 15 extra points
• His opponent in the final round won 4 straight gets 12 extra points
• The next two guys get 9 extra points
• The next 4 guys get 6 points
• Finally, the our 8 guys who won round 1 each get 3 points

Let us paint some real world examples to show how big this is.

I win round one, but lose round two. I plummet to the lower end of the tournament. I get an easy win but start day two at the bottom of the 2-1 pile. Somehow, I go 2-0 on Day Two and finish 4-1. You might see this and go “Wow, nice job.” This tactic, though frowned upon by the community, is known as submarining. It is more effective in Battlepoint systems, but as shown here could work in a Win-Loss system. ITC has seen right through this.

The top player would be the 5-0 player. The second place player would his opponent in the final round, going 4-1. Let us assume I finished third with my 4-1 record. Despite being only one rank below him, the second place person left me in the dust for ITC points

• First place – (100 points + 15 bonus points) x 1.1024 = 127 points
• Second place  - (90 points + 12 bonus points) x 1.1024 = 112 points
• Third Place (Me) – (85 points + 0 bonus points) x 1.1024 = 94 points
• Fourth Place  - (80 points + 9 bonus points) x 1.1024 = 98 points

Yes, that right: they guy who went 4-1 by winning three games, lost in round four, and won in Round 5 got more points than me for the season. You will also notice that 5 points separate the top eight. Winning at least your first two games ensures you will get points for one position higher than you actually finished. 

What does this mean for list building?

The opening round is a random pairing in 99% of all tournaments in 40k. Chess players call this the slaughter round, as you have to prepare for any eventuality. Once again, we are looking the idea of the Take All Comers (TAC) lists to get through this mess. There are more articles than I can count on this subject, so I will offer an alternative.

Grand Masters in chess play better than other chess players not because they know chess better, but they know their opponents better. Not personally, although I have learned a lot about how to beat an opponent just by their bragging. They recognize the patterns of how the player is playing and know the counter.

For example, if you play your friend who brings the same list every week at the local games store, you will get really good at beating that list should you face it in a tournament.

If I say Skyhammer Annihilation Force, you know immediately “Drop Pods and Grav” and deploy accordingly.

If I say Necrons on foot you know must Necrons shooting is only 24” and you would deploy differently than the previous example.

What happens more than most to newer tournament players is what I call the “First Contact” effect.  When you play a list that you have never seen before, or if you are a chess player who does not recognize their opponent’s strategy, you use five times as much brainpower than if you are playing against a familiar scenario. That amount of grey matter usage adds up quickly over three to five rounds of play.

Bottom line: better players are not smarter than you. They have just been there, seen that.