The 2016 Change to the ITC No One Talks About

This is by far the most overlooked change from the 2015 to 2016 ITC season. I would go as far as saying it is the First Blood of the ITC ranking system, where only one player can obtain it and it becomes the tiebreaker that wins games.

The importance of winning round one is losing round one will cost you about 6 points or 1-2 rankings per event.

Tournament Organizers know this part of the game. If you have 16 players you need at least three rounds to find a true winner

• After round 1 you have 8 winners
• Using Swiss Pairings, where winners play winners, you have 4 undefeated players after round 2
• After round 3 you will have 2 undefeated players, and mission points will determine the top player

ITC awards 3 point per win until your first loss. Based on the formula above

• Only two players will be undefeated, so they will get 9 extra points
• Only 2 additional players won two in a row and lost their last game, gaining 6 points
• Only 4 guys will get three extra points for winning Round 1

Let us look at a GT level event with five rounds

• 32 players to start
• 16 players win round one
• 8 players win round two
• 4 players win round three
• 2 players win round four
• 1 player stands alone with 5 wins

Now we add in the bonus for having 32 players, let us see just how many extra points each player got:

• Our top player at 5-0 would get 15 extra points
• His opponent in the final round won 4 straight gets 12 extra points
• The next two guys get 9 extra points
• The next 4 guys get 6 points
• Finally, the our 8 guys who won round 1 each get 3 points

Let us paint some real world examples to show how big this is.

I win round one, but lose round two. I plummet to the lower end of the tournament. I get an easy win but start day two at the bottom of the 2-1 pile. Somehow, I go 2-0 on Day Two and finish 4-1. You might see this and go “Wow, nice job.” This tactic, though frowned upon by the community, is known as submarining. It is more effective in Battlepoint systems, but as shown here could work in a Win-Loss system. ITC has seen right through this.

The top player would be the 5-0 player. The second place player would his opponent in the final round, going 4-1. Let us assume I finished third with my 4-1 record. Despite being only one rank below him, the second place person left me in the dust for ITC points

• First place – (100 points + 15 bonus points) x 1.1024 = 127 points
• Second place  - (90 points + 12 bonus points) x 1.1024 = 112 points
• Third Place (Me) – (85 points + 0 bonus points) x 1.1024 = 94 points
• Fourth Place  - (80 points + 9 bonus points) x 1.1024 = 98 points

Yes, that right: they guy who went 4-1 by winning three games, lost in round four, and won in Round 5 got more points than me for the season. You will also notice that 5 points separate the top eight. Winning at least your first two games ensures you will get points for one position higher than you actually finished. 

What does this mean for list building?

The opening round is a random pairing in 99% of all tournaments in 40k. Chess players call this the slaughter round, as you have to prepare for any eventuality. Once again, we are looking the idea of the Take All Comers (TAC) lists to get through this mess. There are more articles than I can count on this subject, so I will offer an alternative.

Grand Masters in chess play better than other chess players not because they know chess better, but they know their opponents better. Not personally, although I have learned a lot about how to beat an opponent just by their bragging. They recognize the patterns of how the player is playing and know the counter.

For example, if you play your friend who brings the same list every week at the local games store, you will get really good at beating that list should you face it in a tournament.

If I say Skyhammer Annihilation Force, you know immediately “Drop Pods and Grav” and deploy accordingly.

If I say Necrons on foot you know must Necrons shooting is only 24” and you would deploy differently than the previous example.

What happens more than most to newer tournament players is what I call the “First Contact” effect.  When you play a list that you have never seen before, or if you are a chess player who does not recognize their opponent’s strategy, you use five times as much brainpower than if you are playing against a familiar scenario. That amount of grey matter usage adds up quickly over three to five rounds of play.

Bottom line: better players are not smarter than you. They have just been there, seen that.

Ruling on New Releases

Thank for your patience


We wanted to do our due diligence on this make sure all participants have an enjoyable time at Scorched Earth Open.


Crimson Slaughter & Black Legion supplements will be allowed


The 30th Anniversary Space Marine will not be allowed


Angel of Death supplement will be allowed
with the exception of the new psychic powers


The Renegade knights and any future releases between now & the event will not be allowed


Sorry for the late notice and I hope to see you all on May 14th & 15th

Are Big ITC Tournaments Worth it?

One of the changes to the ITC is that all tournaments, even those under 16 players, award full points. Secondly, the modifier for the size the tournament has doubled. That means playing well on the big stage has its rewards.

Tournaments are now classified into three events. On the surface, this seems like fancy nomenclature. The reality is very different.

As mentioned above, only your top 5 events count. In previous years, that meant as long as you can clean up at Bob’s Comics & Games 5 times you should have an easy 500+ point season. That is not the case this season, as only three events of less than 28 players, or RTT size, will count towards your top 5.

To get full points, you will need to attend the following

• 3 RTTs, 1 GT, 1 Major Event
• Replace any RTT with another GT event or attend a Major Event
• Attend 5 Major Events

This is actually a clever idea. Larger events are something every player should experience. The excitement, community and pageantry of seeing that many players in one spot is something that will really ignite the hobby in players.

Secondly, the level of difficulty goes up, as the field gets larger. Larger tournaments will need additional rounds to determine a true winner. A GT level event will need at least five rounds, while some major events can go seven rounds. The mental endurance required to be at the top of your game for that long is a remarkable feat. Given the calculations needed during the average 2-3 hour game of 40k, a five round weekend tournament is equivalent to taking the SAT three times in the same weekend.

Lastly, more rounds leads to more balance among the match ups. Getting a bad or favorable match up in a three round tournament is a bit of luck. To duplicate that luck over five or more rounds is less likely, forcing the players to work themselves out of bad situations. Some lists that rely on certain warlord traits or psychic powers will more likely expose their weakness in larger events. For example, my friend posted this lengthy explanation of how he is 79% likely to get the psychic power he needs his list to be “unstoppable”. I will spare you his math and bravado to make my point.

In a three game event, 79% or 1/5 chance is (1/5 + 1/5 +1/5) = 3/5 or a 60% he will play one game without his super combo. Simply put it should happen once every other event. This may be an acceptable risk for most players.

In a five round event, there is a 100% statistical chance it happens once that weekend. Assuming that my dramatic friend is a right and he cannot win without this power the best he can do is 4-1, which is an outside chance at best to win the event. Perhaps the list needs some more work.

How big is worth my time?

Any game experience is worth its weight in gold. In several studies among chess players, there was no genetic advantage between competitive chess players and Grand Masters. This a big deal when you consider anyone less than 6 feet tall has a slim chance to compete in the NBA, NHL, or NFL. What does differentiate Grand Masters from others is the number of games they play at a high level.

If you want to get better, play more games at the highest level possible.

For more analysis, let us do some math.

For every 16 players at the start of the tournament, your score increases by 5%

The key to winning is to finish in the Top 8, as that is where the bigger points are. Any size event will have a top eight. Where larger events help players is the next level groupings become much larger and more attainable.

	16 players	32 players	48 players	64 players
Top 10% outside of the top 8 (55 points)	1 player	2 players	4 players	6 players
Next 20% (40 points)	1 player	5 players	8 players	11 players
Next 30% (30 points)	2 players	7 players	12 players	17 players
Last 40% (20 points)	4 players	10 players	16 players	22 players

Then you take into the size of the tournament factors

	16 players	32 players	48 players	64 players
First Place	105 points	110 points	115 points	120 points
2nd	95 points	99 points	104 points	108 points
3rd	89 points	94 points	98 points	102 points
4th	84 points	88 points	92 points	96 points
5th	79 points	83 points	86 points	90 points
6th	74 points	77 points	81 points	84 points
7th	68 points	72 points	75 points	78 points
8th	63 points	66 points	69 points	72 points
Top 10% outside of the top 8	58 points	60 points	63 points	66 points
Next 20%	42 points	44 points	46 points	48 points
Next 30%	31 points	33 points	34 points	36 points
Last 40%	21 points	22 points	23 points	24 points

 

If you are not a fan of numbers, here is a narrative version: a player who finishes 12^th at a 48-player tournament will get more points than a player who finished eighth at a 16-player event.

Bottom line: playing well at larger events will be worth it.

This Weekends New Codices & Supplements

Our rule has always been not to accept any new products that have been on the market for less than 30 days at our tournament


This weekend has three releases that are right at that threshold


Given the rumors and leaks I so far do not see anything crazy
(editorial note a bit disappointed at a few of them)


But please give our team the weekend to review and we will make an official announcement early next week


other updates
Objective Markers came yesterday
Awards have been ordered
as have the top secret door prize for all attendees

How to Win the ITC

The 2016 ITC season is upon us. It is a time of hopes and dreams where 40k players from around the globe look to twelve months of blood, sweat, and toil to reign supreme. Much like an ordinary game of 40k, you need to have a plan before you start. Let us look deeper at the changes for 2016 and how that will affect your tournament plans.

The simplest way to win the ITC is to win 5 Major events.

• Winning an event of any size grants you at least 100 points towards the season standings
• To win the event you will most likely need to be undefeated for at least 5 rounds, granting you another 15 points
• Major events have over 58 players (based on the new 2016 definitions). You are looking at a 20% bump up in points
• And finally only the top 5 scores are counted, so by been dominant on the biggest stage you should have no contest to the title

Simple, yes, but this is not realistic. Last season out of 2000+ participants, only two players won more than one major event.

Let me tell you about plan B.

Get out and play

Where most players fell down in the rankings (self-included) was not playing in enough ITC events over the year. The system is set up to benefit the occasion weekend warrior or the diehard wandering tournament player in that only the best 5 scores count. Here are few examples to help clarify that

My one buddy has no family or weekend work commitments. His job forces him to live out of an airport and has frequent flier miles to burn. So for him to attend an ITC event anywhere in the country is a real possibility. Despite the idea of having 52 ITC events sounds like he should win the title by attrition. This is not the case, as only the top 5 events would count, and the other 46 events would have been good practice.

Another example and one that is painfully real: I have two kids, a wife, and job the demands a lot of time and some on call responsibilities. Finding Saturdays for Daddy to go play with plastic soldiers is not easy. To start the season I took out the calendar and mapped out a plan to at least attend 5 events. After some negotiating and help from the grand parents to watch the kids on certain Saturdays, we have a plan. Good news, I should get full points. Bad news, with only 5 games, I have no room for error or having a bad day.

By playing less than five ITC events, you are giving yourself a zero for those events. Considering the player who finishes dead last gets at least 20 points, that is a huge disservice to you.

Funny story to add to this point: the last tournament of the season I needed to hire a babysitter in order for me to attend. She showed up 90 minutes late, so I missed the tournament. Those 20 odd points meant losing three ranking spots for top player in my faction. Even if I had won a single game, I would vault even higher.

Playing in more than five events is also a huge advantage, as better performances bump the lower scores.

Let us put this to the test

Derek Page, who won the Rattler Cup in our area (more on that in previous posts) looked like this midseason

• Scorched Earth Open      112 points
• Empire Games RTT        90 Points
• Power 9 RTT                 56 Points
• Crusaders Retreat #1      56 Points

At this moment he has (112+90+56+56) = 314 points

Looking at the leader board, the top players have at least 500 points so Derek does not have prayer. That would not be the case as we show here.

Derek does well in his next three events scoring

• Salt River Rumble          87 points
• Imperial Outpost (Dec)   107 points
• Rattler Cup Finals          109 points

Since we only take the top five scores, we replace the two 56 point events with the higher scores.

So going into LVO his new score is (112+90+87+107+109) = 505 points

Now some of you are thinking why bother going to LVO, since it can only hurt his score.

Not true. Let say Derek spends his whole time gambling and goes 0-7. Big deal, the top five scores remain his top 5 and he loses nothing other than the money the casinos won from him.

Last year’s LVO had close to 300 players, using the new system any points earned at LVO are for practical purposes doubled. As long as Derek could finish in the top 10% after the top eight, he would gain 108 points from the event. That bumps his previous lowest score from the Salt River Rumble giving him a new total of 526 points.

Another example for those who languish in mid table obscurity. One of our friends starts the season off well scoring four events quickly.

His score so far is (92+77+51+49) = 269 points

He is averaging about 67 points a game, which means his next event, should get him to 336 points, enough to get him within the top 5 of his underused faction. Nevertheless, life intercedes, the corporate giants that sign his paychecks relocate him Balookaville, and we never hear from him again. That last game he never played counts a zero.

Look for your own sad story by looking at the standings of how many people have 120 or more points after two games and never play again.

You cannot win if you do not show up