Are Big ITC Tournaments Worth it?

One of the changes to the ITC is that all tournaments, even those under 16 players, award full points. Secondly, the modifier for the size the tournament has doubled. That means playing well on the big stage has its rewards.

Tournaments are now classified into three events. On the surface, this seems like fancy nomenclature. The reality is very different.

As mentioned above, only your top 5 events count. In previous years, that meant as long as you can clean up at Bob’s Comics & Games 5 times you should have an easy 500+ point season. That is not the case this season, as only three events of less than 28 players, or RTT size, will count towards your top 5.

To get full points, you will need to attend the following

• 3 RTTs, 1 GT, 1 Major Event
• Replace any RTT with another GT event or attend a Major Event
• Attend 5 Major Events

This is actually a clever idea. Larger events are something every player should experience. The excitement, community and pageantry of seeing that many players in one spot is something that will really ignite the hobby in players.

Secondly, the level of difficulty goes up, as the field gets larger. Larger tournaments will need additional rounds to determine a true winner. A GT level event will need at least five rounds, while some major events can go seven rounds. The mental endurance required to be at the top of your game for that long is a remarkable feat. Given the calculations needed during the average 2-3 hour game of 40k, a five round weekend tournament is equivalent to taking the SAT three times in the same weekend.

Lastly, more rounds leads to more balance among the match ups. Getting a bad or favorable match up in a three round tournament is a bit of luck. To duplicate that luck over five or more rounds is less likely, forcing the players to work themselves out of bad situations. Some lists that rely on certain warlord traits or psychic powers will more likely expose their weakness in larger events. For example, my friend posted this lengthy explanation of how he is 79% likely to get the psychic power he needs his list to be “unstoppable”. I will spare you his math and bravado to make my point.

In a three game event, 79% or 1/5 chance is (1/5 + 1/5 +1/5) = 3/5 or a 60% he will play one game without his super combo. Simply put it should happen once every other event. This may be an acceptable risk for most players.

In a five round event, there is a 100% statistical chance it happens once that weekend. Assuming that my dramatic friend is a right and he cannot win without this power the best he can do is 4-1, which is an outside chance at best to win the event. Perhaps the list needs some more work.

How big is worth my time?

Any game experience is worth its weight in gold. In several studies among chess players, there was no genetic advantage between competitive chess players and Grand Masters. This a big deal when you consider anyone less than 6 feet tall has a slim chance to compete in the NBA, NHL, or NFL. What does differentiate Grand Masters from others is the number of games they play at a high level.

If you want to get better, play more games at the highest level possible.

For more analysis, let us do some math.

For every 16 players at the start of the tournament, your score increases by 5%

The key to winning is to finish in the Top 8, as that is where the bigger points are. Any size event will have a top eight. Where larger events help players is the next level groupings become much larger and more attainable.

	16 players	32 players	48 players	64 players
Top 10% outside of the top 8 (55 points)	1 player	2 players	4 players	6 players
Next 20% (40 points)	1 player	5 players	8 players	11 players
Next 30% (30 points)	2 players	7 players	12 players	17 players
Last 40% (20 points)	4 players	10 players	16 players	22 players

Then you take into the size of the tournament factors

	16 players	32 players	48 players	64 players
First Place	105 points	110 points	115 points	120 points
2nd	95 points	99 points	104 points	108 points
3rd	89 points	94 points	98 points	102 points
4th	84 points	88 points	92 points	96 points
5th	79 points	83 points	86 points	90 points
6th	74 points	77 points	81 points	84 points
7th	68 points	72 points	75 points	78 points
8th	63 points	66 points	69 points	72 points
Top 10% outside of the top 8	58 points	60 points	63 points	66 points
Next 20%	42 points	44 points	46 points	48 points
Next 30%	31 points	33 points	34 points	36 points
Last 40%	21 points	22 points	23 points	24 points

 

If you are not a fan of numbers, here is a narrative version: a player who finishes 12^th at a 48-player tournament will get more points than a player who finished eighth at a 16-player event.

Bottom line: playing well at larger events will be worth it.